It’s October, but Christmas treats are already in stores, which means ’tis the season to look at the retail trends for this festive period. For brands and retailers, Q4 is when marketing ramps up, campaigns peak, and positioning for gifting becomes critical.

Budget concerns may temper spending this year, but the race to win consumers’ hearts - and wallets - is already on.

In this blog, we explore the trends shaping this festive season, from supermarket price wars and social commerce to pre-loved gifting and more.

Festive frugality

Inflation is not easing, and consumer confidence remains fragile. Retail leaders, such as Aldi’s UK chief Giles Hurley, have warned that the government’s delayed budget announcement (set for late November) is likely to impact consumers in the run-up to Christmas. Shoppers are expected to hold back until they know how far their money will stretch.

Retail Economics points out that food shopping is increasingly polarised: premium treats at M&S or Waitrose, basics at Aldi or Lidl, and big online orders at Tesco.

This split has sparked a fierce supermarket price war. Asda, Tesco, and Morrisons are slashing prices to attract cost-conscious buyers, while Tesco’s mix of price-matching, loyalty rewards, and premium festive ranges is boosting its market share. The pressure isn’t just on groceries: fashion, electronics, and homeware are also racing to offer deals and flexible options to cautious shoppers.

Pre-loved powers on

Second-hand gifting is going mainstream, shedding its “cheap” reputation to become sustainable, thoughtful, and budget-friendly.

The 2024 Recommerce Report found UK shoppers spent over £2bn on pre-loved gifts, with 84% including them in their festive budget. Younger shoppers are leading the trend, and resale platforms like Vinted, Depop, and eBay are thriving because of it.

Retailers offering verified second-hand options (M&S with eBay, Dr. Martens with Depop) are positioning themselves as go-to destinations for affordable, feel-good gifting.

Omnichannel omnipotence

Shopping habits remain hybrid. YouGov reports 36% of UK shoppers plan to shop mainly online, while DecisionMarketing found 43% favour in-store shopping. Forbes notes 61% research online before visiting stores.

Omnichannel is all about seamless shopping experiences: click-and-collect, fast delivery, easy returns. John Lewis is the gold standard for this with their immersive stores and online shopping options, while M&S makes it easy to order online and pick up in under an hour.

Brands that combine convenience, quality, and flexibility will come out on top this Christmas.

The influence of influencers

Social media has become a direct path to purchase; TikTok and Instagram allow shoppers to discover and buy gifts without leaving the app.

A 2024 MGH survey found 55% of consumers discover holiday gifts on TikTok, with 37% buying directly via TikTok Shop.

Influencer-led commerce drives impulse buys, particularly among Gen Z. Any brand leveraging trusted creators on TikTok, Instagram, or Facebook can capture a significant share of festive spend.

Where to go from here

Q4 will be defined by competition, creativity, and adaptability. Your advantage comes from targeting the decision-makers behind these retail strategies.

ALF Insight provides the intelligence to understand these shifts, identify opportunities in these markets, and engage the right people at the right time. In a season driven by strategy and agility, don’t just follow trends - use them to grow.

This blog post is a shortened version of our Industry Insight: Retail Trends for Christmas/Q4 and Brands to Watch. If you’d like the full version, packed with in-depth consumer trend analysis, actionable insights, and the brands you should be keeping an eye on this quarter, click here.